Typically, the number of properties advertised for sale in spring climbs as vendors look to take advantage of the warmer climate and improved weather. Research analyst Cameron Kusher noted that as housing market conditions transition, stock levels remain tight across the strongest markets but are rising in areas where housing market conditions are softening.
For this analysis, Mr Kusher measured the amount of advertised stock on the market on a rolling 28-day basis.
“Advertised stock levels provide a unique count, meaning that listings are matched to properties and when a property is advertised in more than one place it is only counted once,” Mr Kusher said.
“It’s important to note that typically these counts are more reflective of the established housing market rather than off-the-plan where stock often isn’t individually advertised.”
- Across the nation, CoreLogic is currently tracking 226,007 properties advertised for sale which is -5.3% lower than a year ago and well down on levels at this time of the year for the past five years.
- Across the combined capital cities, total stock advertised for sale is 1.0% higher than it was a year ago with 110,909 properties advertised over the past 28 days. Looking at stock at this time of year across the combined capital cities there is more stock currently for sale than there has been each year since 2013.
Mr Kusher said, “By comparing capital city and national data it indicates that the amount of stock for sale in the regional markets is substantially lower than it has been over recent years. The combined regional markets account for 50.9% of total listings, its lowest proportion of national listings since December 2011.”
Across the individual capital cities, the data varies quite substantially.
- Sydney – currently has 25,625 properties advertised for sale which is 19.5% higher than a year ago. In comparison to the same time over recent years, the amount of stock on the market is now higher than each of the past four years.
- Melbourne – with 30,570 properties advertised for sale stock levels are – 1.7% lower than a year ago. The volume of stock for sale is lower for this time of year than any of the past 5 years.
- Brisbane – the number of properties advertised for sale is 2.5% higher than a year ago with 20,611 properties currently on the market. Compared to this time of year over the past five years, listings are at their highest level since 2012 however, they are -15.2% lower than 2012 levels.
- Adelaide – with 8,794 properties for sale, listings are 8.0% higher than a year ago and at their highest levels for this time of year since 2013 although they are -7.7% lower than 2013 levels.
- Perth – the 20,309 properties for sale in Perth is -14.3% lower than a year ago however, it is also 1.6% higher than volumes at this time of year two years ago,
- Hobart – with 1,157 properties for sale across the city the volume of stock for sale -33.6% lower than a year ago and at its lowest level over each of the past five years. In fact Hobart stock for sale is -54.7% lower than it was two years ago.
- Darwin – the 1,581 properties advertised for sale is -1.9% lower than a year ago however, stock levels remain elevated. In fact stock for sale is 73.0% higher than it was in 2012.
- Canberra – the 2,262 properties advertised for sale currently is 14.4% more than there were a year ago. The number of properties for sale is up on 2015 and 2016 levels.
Mr Kusher found that listings trends vary significantly across the country. As an example, Hobart, which is the housing market with the strongest value growth has seen a dramatic fall in listings over recent years.
Meanwhile, values have fallen over the year in Perth and Darwin and each of these cities is seeing heightened stock levels. Sydney has seen a rapid slowdown in growth over recent months and at the same time the volume of stock for sale has increased relative to recent years. In Melbourne, value growth remains relatively strong (although it has slowed a little) and the volume of stock for sale remains lower than over recent years.
Mr Kusher’s findings highlight that the stock for sale (supply) does have a fairly significant impact on the change in dwelling values.
He said, “As stock increases, growth slows and as stock falls growth has accelerated.”
Upcoming auctions
Due to the low activity in Victoria this week, all of the busiest suburbs for auctions are in New South Wales, with 26 Mosman homes scheduled to go under the hammer, followed by Randwick (20), St Ives (18) and Vaucluse (14).
This week, there are fewer auctions scheduled to take place across the combined capital cities, with 1,862 currently being tracked by CoreLogic, this is half the volume of auctions recorded last week when the combined capitals saw the highest volume of auctions recorded since late 2015 (3,713).
Across Melbourne, auction activity is expected to fall this week; the lower volumes is likely due to the upcoming Melbourne cup festivities and coming off the back of the highest week for auctions ever recorded for the city. There are only 258 Melbourne homes scheduled to go to auction this week, down from the 1,983 last week.
Activity across Sydney is set to remain relatively steady week-on-week, with 1,148 auctions scheduled to take place, decreasing by 6 per cent on last week’s final figures which saw 1,215 auctions held. Across the remaining capital cities, auction activity is expected to decrease across Adelaide, Brisbane, Perth and Tasmania, while Canberra will see volumes rise.
Last week’s auction summary
The combined capital cities recorded a year-to-date high in auction volumes last week, with 3,713 held; despite the higher volumes the final auction clearance rate saw only a slight dip week-on-week, recording a 64.5 per cent clearance rate from 64.7 per cent over the week prior, when significantly fewer auctions were held across the cities (2,519). Over the same week last year, 2,253 auctions were held with 74.4 per cent reported as successful.
Melbourne’s final auction clearance rate remained above 70 per cent last week as volumes reached their highest level ever recorded for the city, with 1,983 Melbourne homes taken to auction, returning a final clearance rate of 70.2 per cent, down only slightly from the week prior when 70.3 per cent of the 1,251 auctions cleared.
In Sydney, volumes also saw a significant increase week-on-week, with 1,215 held, however the final auction clearance rate dropped to its lowest level this year and lowest since January 2016, recording a 58.3 per cent rate of clearance, down from the 61.3 per cent the previous week when 823 auction were held.
Adelaide, Canberra and Perth all saw clearance rates increase last week, while Brisbane and Tasmania recorded lower clearance rates when compared to the week prior.
Geelong was the best performing sub-region last week, recording a 79.7 per cent clearance rate across 65 auctions, while the Gold Coast held the most auctions (85).
